Football fans who have been keeping up to date with what is going on in the World Cup betting markets inevitably come to the conclusion that bookmakers need their heads read. A scan of the most popular betting markets show that some teams and players are vastly overpriced, while the talents of others are exaggerated by the low odds offered on them.
Here’s a selection of World Cup betting markets where the bookmakers appear to have read it wrong:
1. World Cup Winner
Please excuse us while we laugh into our paella, but Spain should not be the favourite to win the 2010 Football World Cup. Bookmakers like Bet365 and William Hill have priced Spain at World Cup betting odds as low as 4/1 to win the tournament.
Yeah, Spain won the Euro 2008. Historically the European Championship winner has almost never gone on to win the World Cup. And with Spain having displayed a real knack for choking at the World Cup there’s no reason they won’t choke again in 2010.
Apart from anything else, they rely far too heavily on Fernando Torres to score goals when David Villa isn’t firing. Torres hasn’t been in his best form for Liverpool this season, and it’s wishful thinking to imagine that he’ll magically conjure up form in South Africa.
2. Top Goalscorer
Valencia’s David Villa is the favourite to win the Golden Boot at the World Cup. Sure the Spaniard has been in good form this season, but we don’t seem him clinching the Golden Boot in 3 or 4 matches (see above).
How about that other bloke, Wayne Rooney, who is trading as high as 11/1 at some bookies? He’s virtually run the Manchester United attack single handed and is in the best form of his young life. He’s put away over 30 goals this season, burying memories of that Portuguese guy who used to cry a lot but could also play a bit.
What’s more Rooney will enjoy having the ball served up to him fresh by England midfielders, who happen to be some of the finest that have walked the turf of that nation for almost a generation.
3. Top Four
Bookies have also opened markets on which teams will make the semifinals of the 2010 Football World Cup. While England, Argentina and Brazil all belong at the top of the market, there are some glaringly overpriced teams.
How about Holland for instance? When the Dutch get going they are unstoppable, and we can’t see how they won’t make the semis. Then there’s Ivory Coast and Ghana. They’re not going to South Africa to watch the action from the stands and are packed with players who regularly compete, and win, at the highest level.
To be honest we don’t think that bookmakers are thinking the World Cup markets through properly, and that there are World Cup odds analysts out there who should be flipping burgers. We won’t be complaining too much though, because bad calls by bookies means big profits on the <!–LINK REMOVED –>Football World Cup betting<!–END LINK REMOVED –> markets.